PU Blog
Swiss Franc -- Safe Heaven or Leveraged Risk?

Swiss Franc -- Safe Heaven or Leveraged Risk?

It is written here and there that the Swiss Franc is used as a safe heaven in the last weeks and months and that the flight into this low-risk alternative, was the reason for its recent past outperformance (ie. rise versus other currencies) -- is this true or a fallacy: could it be a real safe heaven (ie. a less risky currency than other majors) and is this shift into the Franc causing its outperformance? In short and maybe a bit surprising or counter-intiuitively, the answer to both questions is a clear and strong: **NO!** To understand this we only have to see that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) holds approx 90% of its assets in foreign currencies (especially USD & EUR but also GBP & JPY) as it is massively intervening in the market to "lower" the CHF, ie. **_to bind the CHF to the other major currencies._** That means the SNB is creating & emitting the sought-after CHF by buying mainly EUR or USD -- which (EUR, USD etc) are appearing on its asset-side while the CHF is its corresponding liability, of course. It is obvious that so the CHF not only is related to the value of the EUR & USD, mainly but also carries their risks plus the local "Swiss" risks. The resulting situation is quite similar to a currency-board regime -- but of course the ARS (Argentinian Peso) was never a Safe Heaven to avoid risks in the USD, in the 1990s and 2000s when Argentinia had a currency board with USD-base.